New attainment 8 estimates for 2016 published

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4 Responses

  1. Chris says:

    I have to say I was a little taken aback when I saw there were recalculated estimates – this has adversely affected my school’s P8 score! I know FFT gave advice to not calculate the score too soon, but with headteachers breathing down our necks it’s not that simple to say we need to wait until a month after the results reach us before we can know for sure.

    This may just be me being slow on the uptake, but is it fair to use results just obtained to recalculate the baseline estimates in Progress 8? Again, FFT have explained why 2015 estimates may not be reliable but how can actual attainment in 2016 be used retrospectively in that same cohorts estimates? Why can’t the published estimates be used for next year’s leavers and we keep using the 2015 baselines for this September’s checking exercise?

    • David Pott says:

      I think the original plan was that from 2018 onwards we would have the A8 estimates agreed in advance – so that we could accurately predict P8. But sometime last year the DfE backtracked on this and it looks like we’ll have this situation for the for-seeable future.

  2. Tom Merritt Smith says:

    Hi David, can you send me a link to where this data is on the actual DfE website?

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