In June 2014 I attended a Progress 8 update hosted by Duncan Baldwin of ASCL and Mike Treadaway from the FFT. This is my précis of their presentation. It is intended for users of SIMS Assessment Manager who need to understand the principles behind the new measure. I’m not a curriculum expert, or even a teacher. Any errors are my own, with apologies to Mike and Duncan. Here are some of the key points from the session:
Progress 8 Update
- Progress 8 is calculated based on the new 1-8 GCSE grades
- Nationally, for each pupil in the 2014 cohort, the DfE will calculate a decimalised KS2 ‘mean fine grade’ (eg 3.1, 3.2, 3.3, 3.4, 3.5 etc)
- All the pupils attaining a given decimal KS2 average grade (for example 4.5) will be analysed and their average Attainment 8 score will be calculated. The estimates are based on the averages.
- For example, nationally in 2013, pupils who attained 4.5 at KS2 are estimated to achieve an A8 score of 4.42
- Schools will need to use a pupil’s KS2 mean fine grade to calculate the expected Attainment 8 estimate for their own pupils. The difference between a pupil’s actual A8 score and the nationally expected A8 score will be the pupil’s P8 score.
- For example, our pupil with a KS2 mean fine grade of 4.5 went on to achieve an A8 score of 4.62. Hence the pupil’s P8 score is +0.20 (4.62 minus 4.42)
- School P8 is simply the average of each pupil’s P8.
- Most schools P8 values will be in the region of -1.50 to +1.5
- A school will be below the floor if its P8 score is less than -0.50
KS2 mean fine grades
- The KS2 mean fine grades are not a simple average of KS2 english and maths results.
- The DfE use a much more accurate KS2 average based on the raw scores
- The DfE makes this data available for Y11 pupils but not for earlier years (ASCL are trying to change this)
- Meanwhile FFT do produce a suitable KS2 score as part of their analysis.
- If a pupil has no KS2 result (because they weren’t in England or Wales at the time or they were at an independent school) – then it is not possible to calculate a P8 score for that pupil.
Attainment 8: Tips and Points to Watch For
- AS levels always trump GCSEs – even if they’re lower value
- If a pupil does the same exam twice, early entries are always counted – again, even if they’re lower value
- Pupils who do an early entry in core science, then do other sciences (eg Biology) – only the initial core science will count
- Most schools will get higher A8 scores by making sure all the slots (or buckets) are full
- But some individual pupils will get a higher score by going for fewer subjects – it’s a professional call
- Three non-GCSEs are allowed in the ‘other’ slots
Opting In to Performance 8: Some Points for Discussion
- In 2015 schools can opt-in early
- All schools by 2016
- Will you be below the floor?
- How confident are you that your pupils make good progress, across all subjects (not just English and Maths) and across all ability ranges?
- Current 5+A*-C indicator is a threshold measure. P8 is a measure of progress
- P8 is a normative measure – your school is being compared with the results other schools achieve in the same year, not against a fixed, unchanging threshold.
- Hence a ‘good’ P8 score this year might not be a good score next year – because other schools can (and will catch) up.
- Estimated Attainment 8 score scores for 2013 are available – but beware – a good score against 2013 data is no indicator that you will get a good P8 score in 2014
- From @Duncan_Baldwin “Whether to opt in in 2015 is a nuanced decision – don’t rush!”
Updated 22nd June to clarify the calculation of a school P8 from each individual pupil’s P8 (thanks to Duncan Baldwin)
Thank you for this – very helpful.
Just a question on this from another Data Manager… Is there anywhere I can find previous “expected” attainment 8 values for ks2 averages? This would then help me to calculate our own P8 value (although it would obviously only be an estimate for current cohorts)
I don’t know of any – only 2013 data has been published as far as I know…
Do you know what attainment 8 estimates are used in SIMS for the new School Report please?
Hi Deb, I’ve been trying to get Capita to confirm the estimates used by Capita in their school report. So far I haven’t had a definitive reply but I’m working on the assumption that they’re using the 2013 version as per the latest DFE technical guide. Even less clear is which KS2 results they are using. They should be using the decimalised average fine KS2 level which is calculated via the pupils’ raw scores in the KS2 tests. But as SIMS doesn’t usually store that data I’m guessing that they are using the average KS2 sublevel which is similar but perhaps less accurate.
Yes.. sims are using 2013 estimates and KS2 whole grades. Currently this report looks at historic data if a student has current missing data. We are going to wait till this is corrected before i spend hours mapping.
it has all gonw v quiet…are others not grappling wirh this? What do you think to this report? I would rather use my own set up, based on your instructions..much more transparent ans flexible.
I think that if a school uses this report as a predictor of the values they will get in 2016 then they are unlikely to be very accurate. But then again, if they use the proper KS2 fine decimal levels and the latest national A8 estimates, schools are also unlikley to get an accurate result! I suggest that the P8/A8 part of the report might be useful to look for relative gaps between different vulnerable groups in schools but NOT as a guide to the final P8 score.
I was at BETT last week and mentioned these issues directly to the assessment product manager – so perhaps if schools keep logging this issue on SupportNet?
Hi Dave
The DfE makes this data available for Y11 pupils but not for earlier years (ASCL are trying to change this)
What about the boycotted tests. Year 11 has an awful lot of gaps. Any idea what I should be using for that (Average Point Score).
I believe that FFT also makes this data available to its subscribers. Plus the FFT data is for Y7 to Y11.
I’ve never seen any official guidance on what to use for Y11. Many schools have mentioned using teacher assessments, either from summer Y6 or early Y7 assessment. Maybe one of the readers of this blog can help?