The Dfe have released the ‘missing link’ for calculating school Progress 8: the table that maps each possible KS2 decimal fine grade score to the 2013 attainment 8 estimates.
[gview file=”https://googledrive.com/host/0B8EpiuDuVvnIbUR1ajJ0clpPcWs/DfE Attainment 8 estimates_2013.xlsx”]
As I mentioned in previous posts, ASCL and FFT recommend that schools only use this table with extreme caution. The estimates presented in this table are based on the results that schools achieved before the rules surrounding Performance 8 calculations were understood. Now that schools understand the measure it is inevitable that the 2014 (and later) equivalents of this table will show estimates that are significantly higher than the estimates shown in this 2013 version.
However, for schools that might already be near the floor limit for P8 (i.e. -0.5) with this 2013 data, my interpretation is that the P8 value for such a school in 2014 is only likely to be lower. So at least it would give advanced warning. As ever, I stand to be corrected, so please add your comments to this post.
Hello,
I’m just running through something like this at the moment converting an excel spreadsheet that calculates attainment 8 into a SIMs Marksheet. Is there anyway to round a decimal column. I.e. 4.85 = 4.9?
I’m not sure! Maybe someone who reads this blog can help? Meanwhile, I’ll have a think…
Late to the table, but would a gradeset work? Grade would be all the possibles, and the value would be the rounded figure. Would then just review the grade value in the calculations…?
Or, I’m just being thick. Sorry.
Hi Kirstie, thanks for the comments – yes a grade set would work too. Use a VALUE formula if you want to get the attainment 8 figure ‘out’ of the grade set. It just goes to show that there are several good ways of doing this kind of calculation.
Hello
I’ve just been playing with this data and my first silly question is how a pupil obtains an attainment 8 score higher than 58 (A*)? The maximum score achieved in the spreadsheet you posted was 76.3??
Should I be using a different points system to make use of the data posted here?
Hi Alex, I think the attainment 8 figures on this page need to be divided by 10 to make sense. So it’s actually an average of 7.63 on the new GCSE 1-8 scale.
Hi David, That makes a lot more sense, I’ve converted the attainment8 score I produced using the current points system using the following formula – (oldpts/6)-(5/3)=newpts to use it in SIMS without having to convert every grade in my marksheets.
There’s a 2014 set of figures. No idea if this table will show properly…
KS2 average fine level (English & Maths) 2014 Attainment 8 estimate
1.5 14.94
1.6 18.06
1.7 18.06
1.8 18.06
1.9 18.06
2 18.06
2.1 19.13
2.2 19.13
2.3 19.13
2.4 19.13
2.5 19.13
2.6 20.88
2.7 20.88
2.8 20.88
2.9 21.78
3 23.12
3.1 23.38
3.2 24.98
3.3 26.04
3.4 26.98
3.5 28.39
3.6 29.95
3.7 31.75
3.8 33.02
3.9 34.71
4 36.55
4.1 38.48
4.2 40.42
4.3 42.26
4.4 44.41
4.5 46.37
4.6 48.52
4.7 50.67
4.8 52.84
4.9 55.11
5 57.33
5.1 59.72
5.2 62.02
5.3 64.46
5.4 66.97
5.5 69.72
5.6 72.49
5.7 74.71
5.8 76.32
It’s from this document:
Progress 8 measure in 2016 and 2017
Guide for maintained secondary schools, academies and free schools
March 2015