The Dfe have released the ‘missing link’ for calculating school Progress 8: the table that maps each possible KS2 decimal fine grade score to the 2013 attainment 8 estimates.
[gview file=”https://googledrive.com/host/0B8EpiuDuVvnIbUR1ajJ0clpPcWs/DfE Attainment 8 estimates_2013.xlsx”]
As I mentioned in previous posts, ASCL and FFT recommend that schools only use this table with extreme caution. The estimates presented in this table are based on the results that schools achieved before the rules surrounding Performance 8 calculations were understood. Now that schools understand the measure it is inevitable that the 2014 (and later) equivalents of this table will show estimates that are significantly higher than the estimates shown in this 2013 version.
However, for schools that might already be near the floor limit for P8 (i.e. -0.5) with this 2013 data, my interpretation is that the P8 value for such a school in 2014 is only likely to be lower. So at least it would give advanced warning. As ever, I stand to be corrected, so please add your comments to this post.